National Market Review

Property Prices

• The average price of UK property rose by just 0.7% in the year to October to £232,944. Property price growth is currently highest across Wales and Yorkshire and the Humber.
• Rightmove predicts that the price of property coming to market in Britain will rise by 2% during 2020. The election result is expected to bring some stability to the market with pent-up demand being released in the spring along with modest price rises.
• The average price of a property coming to market in December fell by just 0.9%, the smallest fall at this time of year since December 2006, prices underpinned by demand outstripping supply.

Transactions

• The HMRC report sales levels in October were 4.3% higher than a year ago, and at their highest monthly level since March 2017. However, in recent months sales volumes have been revised downwards in subsequent data revisions.
• Rightmove report sales volumes year to date are down just 3% on 2018. In contrast the number of properties coming to market is down by 8%. Prices look set to be underpinned by demand exceeding supply in the near future, with all regions returning to growth over the next 12 months according to the latest RICS survey.
• The MHCLG is set to trail reservation agreements across two pilot regions during the first quarter of 2020. In a bid to see if fall-through rates fall from the 25%-35% discovered by MHCLG research, prospective purchasers will be asked for £500-£1000 in the form of a non-refundable deposit. I will be writing a blog post about reservation agreements in the New Year, so keep a look out as this can significantly change the way property in bought and sold here.

Demand

• Following the uptick in September, as expected mortgage approvals fell back in October, down 3.3% year-on-year to their lowest level in six months. At £21.8 billion was 4% lower year-on-year. Housing market activity often falls back in the run up to an election.
• 60% of households anticipate interest rates will rise over 2020, according to the latest UK Household Finance Index produced by IHS/Markit. Interest rates rose to 0.75% in August, only the second rate rise in a decade.
• Momentum is expected to pick up across the market over the next three months, with sales volumes anticipated to show an uptick. A net-balance of 35% of respondents to the latest RICS survey expect sales to increase in a year’s time, this is the highest reading since February 2017. An increase in demand is anticipated across all regions of the UK.

Investments / Lettings

• Average rents rose by 1.4% across the UK in the year to November, the highest rate of annual growth in two years. Price growth is currently strongest across the South West and East Midlands. Rents in Cardiff are up 1% for flats and 4% for houses.
• The proportion of homes let by accidential landlords has fallen for the first time in five years according to Hamptons International. One in fourteen homes that came onto the rental market across Great Britain in 2019 were listed for sale within the previous six months, the lowest level since 2015.
• More than one in 10 rental properties across Great Britain is let by an overseas landlord, up from one in 14 a year ago, the first year-on-year increase since records began in 2010 according to Countrywide’s Hamptons International brand.

Developments

• The Conservatives have pledged to build 1 million new homes by 2025. Other manifesto pledges include maintaining ‘Right-to-buy’, developing a “first-home scheme’ with properties available at a 30% discount for first-time buyers, protecting the greenbelt and leasehold reform.
• There are now 34,840 Build-to-Rent units completed across the UK, up 31% on the end of Q3 2018. Data released by the British Property Federation shows there are an additional 14,500 units in the planning process compared to a year ago.
• The NHBC report 4,000 fewer new homes were registered to be built across the UK in Q3 2019 compared to a year ago. Private sector registrations fell 16% year on year, while there was an 11% increase in the affordable and rental sector. The latter accounted for 29% of all new build registrations during the quarter.

New Year 2020

I will be adding more reports about the housing market in Wales and Cardiff in the New Year. This will include rentals, investments and property growth.

If you want to chat about any investments you may be making in the New Year for Cardiff and Wales then get in touch.